Robust Multivariate and Nonlinear Time Series Models

Time series modeling and analysis is central to most financial and econometric data modeling. With increased globalization in trade, commerce and finance, national variables like gross domestic productivity (GDP) and unemployment rate, market variables like indices and stock prices and global variables like commodity prices are more tightly coupled than ever before. This translates to the use of multivariate or vector time series models and algorithms in analyzing and understanding the relationships that these variables share with each other. Autocorrelation is one of the fundamental aspects of time series modeling. However, traditional linear models, that arise from a strong observed autocorrelation in many financial and econometric time series data, are at times unable to capture the rather nonlinear relationship that characterizes many time series data. This necessitates the study of nonlinear models in analyzing such time series. The class of bilinear models is one of the simplest nonlinear models. These models are able to capture temporary erratic fluctuations that are common in many financial returns series and thus, are of tremendous interest in financial time series analysis. Another aspect of time series analysis is homoscedasticity versus heteroscedasticity. Many time series data, even after differencing, exhibit heteroscedasticity. Thus, it becomes important to incorporate this feature in the associated models. The class of conditional heteroscedastic autoregressive (ARCH) models and its variants form the primary backbone of conditional heteroscedastic time series models.